Forecasters watching for possibility of severe weather Wednesday
By Leigh Morgan
Birmingham, AL
Forecasters are looking at the potential for severe weather on Wednesday across Alabama, and all modes of weather -- including tornadoes -- could be possible.
There will be a marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday afternoon in parts of south Alabama. The stronger storms could contain damaging wind gusts. More storms will be possible on Wednesday. (National Weather Service)
Stronger storms will also be a possibility for part of the state on Tuesday afternoon as well as on Christmas Eve.
A storm system in the Midwest will help touch off Alabama's anticipated stormy weather. Smaller disturbances are expected to rotate around the main system and into Alabama during the week.
The strongest of these is anticipated to be on Wednesday, but storms will be possible most of the week.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed part of west Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon; the rest of the state is under a marginal risk.
The National Weather Service office in Birmingham has also ramped up its alert level, putting an elevated risk of severe weather across north-central Alabama for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The weather service in Mobile said there is a limited threat across its coverage area in south Alabama, and the Huntsville office also is expecting severe storms on Wednesday.
The weather service in Birmingham said that computer models were coming into more agreement on an atmospheric setup on Wednesday that would be prime for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as well as strong straight-line winds and heavy rain.
Many of the ingredients will be in place for severe weather on Wednesday, but there will be several things to watch that could tamp down the threat, at least in north and central Alabama: Storms farther south along the Gulf Coast and another storm complex near north Alabama.
Rain and thunderstorms at one time had been expected to develop along the coast on Wednesday, interrupting the flow of rich tropical air flowing northward from the Gulf. However, the weather service now thinks that convection along the coast will move away by Wednesday afternoon, which would raise the chances of strong storms and even tornadoes across more of the state.
Another limiting factor could be an earlier round of storms, at least in north Alabama. The weather service in Huntsville noted that there is the potential for a storm complex to move through the Tennessee Valley earlier on Wednesday and help stabilize the environment in north Alabama before stronger storms can develop.
More storms will be possible on Thursday, but not as many. A weak front is anticipated to move into Alabama on Christmas Eve, and stall out near the Interstate 20 corridor, according to the weather service. That front could help touch off another round of storms near it and southward.
Forecasters think that front will begin to move again -- this time northward as a warm front -- on Friday, Christmas Day, bringing warmer weather and lower rain chances to much of the state for the weekend.
Here's more on Wednesday's weather from the National Weather Service in Birmingham:
Click to see forecast map and video: