Outside the 'South': Democrat John Bel Edwards beats David Vitter to become Louisiana's
By Julia O'Donoghue, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune The Times-Picayune /storypackage /#article_inset Article
New Orleans, LA
State Rep. John Bel Edwards, a relatively unknown Democrat from a rural Amite, will be the state's next governor after toppling Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., in one of the biggest political upsets in the state's history.
No state in the Deep South has had a Democratic governor since Kathleen Blanco left office eight years ago. A Democrat hasn't even come within spitting distance of statewide office in Louisiana since 2008, when former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu won reelection.
That all changed Saturday (Nov. 21) as Edwards came out of nowhere to take down a Republican candidate once seen as unbeatable in a solidly Red State. Preliminary election results show Edwards topped Vitter by 12 points, a resounding victory.
"This election shows us that the people of Louisiana in a time of deep cynicism about our politics, and also about our future, that the people have chosen hope over scorn, over negativity," Edwards told a crowd of supporters at his victory party at the Monteleone Hotel. "I did not create this breeze of hope that's rolling across our beautiful and blessed state. But I did catch it.
"This breeze has its roots in the songs of the Louisiana Hayride, the food of our cajun ancestors, the spirituals of our African-American churches and the faith of our Italian ... strawberry farmers, and the energy of Native Americans and our Hispanic immigrants. No I didn't start the breeze of hope, but I did catch it. And so did you.
We all caught that breeze. The people of Louisiana have chosen to believe we can do better, and by doing better we will be better. And I commit to you we will be better as a result of tonight."
Edwards election day efforts focused on New Orleans. He met up with U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond in the afternoon at Spears & Spears law firm in St. Roch to make phone calls and send encouraging texts to supporters. Several people in "John Bel Edwards for Governor" T-shirts could also be seen boarding a school bus outside the law firm's building, presumably to help the Democrat turn out the vote in other parts of the city.
An Edwards administration is expected to be a marked shift from Gov. Bobby Jindal's approach to public policy over the past eight years. The Democrat is expected to bring Medicaid expansion to Louisiana shortly after taking office, meaning thousands of more Louisiana residents could have access to health insurance in a couple of months. Teachers unions and other organized labor groups will also have more of a voice with Edwards than they ever had with Jindal.
It wasn't thought a Democrat had a decent shot at winning a statewide race in 2015, let alone the governor's race. A few rising stars in the party, like New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, choose not to run for higher office this election cycle because their prospects of winning looked so weak.
But Edwards proved them wrong. A West Point graduate who served in the Legislature for eight years, Edwards led the primary with 40 percent of the vote, built up big leads in the polls and bulked up his fundraising during the runoff. The Democrat emphasized his conservative views on topics like abortion and guns throughout the campaign, in order to stave off concerns that he was too liberal for Louisiana.
"John Bel, as much as possible, attempted to identify with Republicans," said U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.
Edwards attracted a surprising number of endorsements from law enforcement groups, such as the Louisiana Sheriffs Association, that are more inclined to favor Republicans. The Louisiana State Troopers Association, which rarely endorses gubernatorial candidates, backed Edwards.
The outcome of the election, however, may have turned more on Vitter's weaknesses than Edwards' appeal. The senator's years-old prostitution scandal and difficult relationships with several Republicans in the state proved to be too much to overcome. Vitter has had "high negatives" in political polling for years -- meaning many voters have an unfavorable view of him -- but that hadn't kept him from winning campaigns -- until now.
After winning re-election to his Senate seat in 2010, Vitter had been regarded nationally as one of those rare politicians able to survive an embarrassing sex scandal. But Louisiana voters apparently care more about the personal history of the next governor than a member of Congress. His connection to prostitution dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly among Christian conservatives, once his most ardent supporters.
The senator was also never fully able to unite the Republican party behind his candidacy following the primary. One of Vitter's Republican primary opponents, Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne, ended up endorsing Edwards. The other major Republican primary candidate, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, refused to endorse anyone, which was seen as a rejection of Vitter's candidacy.
"I came up short," said Vitter, before announcing he wouldn't even seek re-election to his Senate seat next year.
Dardenne and Angelle have both complained that Vitter unfairly attacked them during the primary election. The candidates used words like "vicious" and "liar" to describe Vitter during primary debates. Many of those bitter soundbites from the GOP officials wound up being used in anti-Vitter commercials and direct mail pieces during the runoff campaign.
Vitter's frosty relationships with other Republican elected officials also caught up with him. A day before the primary, a private investigator hired by Vitter was arrested for spying on Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand and state Sen. Danny Martiny, R-Kenner, among others. The incident gave Normand, a longtime political foe of Vitter's, a platform to highlight his disagreements with the senator.
But some of Vitter's problems may not have had much to do with him at all. Gov. Bobby Jindal's unpopularity in Louisiana may have hurt Vitter's campaign. Recent polling shows Louisiana voters are tired of Jindal, and could be looking for a big change in the Governor's Mansion. Vitter and Jindal don't get along, but they share many of the same views on public policy.
"Clearly, the voters wanted a change," said state Treasurer John Kennedy, a Republican who campaigned relentlessly for Vitter.
Democrats may paint Edwards' victory as the resurgence of the party in Louisiana, but experts warn against jumping to that conclusion. Vitter may have lost, but that doesn't mean most other Republicans would have.
"A Republican ought to win automatically," said Charlie Cook, a Louisiana native and well-regarded election prognosticator in Washington D.C. "If Vitter's name had never come up in the D.C Madam case, we would be looking at a 10 to 15 point win" for the Republican.
Edwards appears to recognize that the Republican brand hasn't necessarily been permanently tarnished in Louisiana. The Democrat has promised to govern from the middle and is expected to appoint Democrats and Republicans alike to cabinet positions. For example, Dardenne is likely on a short list to fill a high-profile position in the Edwards administration.
Edwards may have to govern in a bipartisan manner, not just by choice. The governor-elect has a serious budget crisis on his hands, and will need a two-thirds vote of the GOP-controlled Legislature for many of his proposals to fix Louisiana's finances.
"I think that the Legislature and executive branch should cooperate fully," said Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego, who is likely to remain atop the state senate in 2016.
But not everyone is excited to see Edwards head up the executive office. The Democrat makes many of the state's leading business groups nervous. Edwards has not been supportive of the school choice movement, including charter schools and the state voucher program. Business leaders also believe he is more inclined to roll back their tax credits and incentive programs to fix the state's budget problems than a Republican would be.
Edwards will have to find an enormous amount of money somewhere to shore up the state's finances. Louisiana is wrestling with a $500 million shortfall in its current budget cycle and a projected $1 billion budget gap in the next fiscal year. And Edwards isn't looking to just maintain state services, he is also seeking to double funding to higher education over the next four years -- which will require even more resources.
Political reporter Kevin Litten contributed to this report.
Governor
3945 of 3945 precincts reporting
John Bel Edwards X646860 56.11%
David Vitter 505929 43.89%